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Market Structure

Sugar trades in two interconnected markets: physical (OTC) where actual sugar changes hands, and futures where standardized contracts trade on exchanges.

Two Markets

AspectPhysical (OTC)Futures (Exchange)
ProductActual sugarStandardized contracts
ContractsNegotiatedExchange-traded
SettlementPhysical deliveryCash or physical
CounterpartyDirect exposureClearinghouse
Volume~65 MMT/year~3,000+ MMT equiv

Physical Market

How It Works

Physical sugar trades through:

  • Direct negotiation between buyers/sellers
  • Broker intermediation for anonymity
  • Tenders for large institutional purchases

Physical Contract Elements

ElementExample
CommodityVHP 99.3° Pol, ICUMSA 1000
Quantity25,000 MT ±5%
PriceNo.11 Mar + 25 pts
IncotermFOB Santos
ShipmentFeb 1-28, 2025
PaymentL/C at sight

Pricing Methods

MethodDescription
Flat PriceFixed USD/MT
BasisFutures + premium/discount
IndexPublished index reference

Example Pricing

Brazilian VHP, FOB Santos, March Shipment
Price = ICE No.11 March + 35 points
If No.11 March = 21.50 c/lb
Physical = 21.50 + 0.35 = 21.85 c/lb
In USD/MT: 21.85 × 22.0462 = $481.71/MT

Futures Markets

Primary Exchanges

ExchangeContractsHours (Local)
ICE USNo.11, No.1603:30-13:00 ET
ICE EuropeNo.5 (White)08:45-17:55 GMT
B3 (Brazil)Sugar, Ethanol09:00-16:20 BRT

Why Futures Exist

  1. Price Discovery — Transparent prices
  2. Risk Transfer — Hedging for physicals
  3. Liquidity — Easy entry/exit
  4. Counterparty Protection — Clearinghouse

ICE Sugar No.11

The global benchmark for raw sugar.

Contract Specs

SpecValue
SymbolSB
Trading Unit112,000 lbs (50.8 MT)
Price QuoteUS cents per pound
Tick Size0.01 c/lb ($11.20)
Contract MonthsMar, May, Jul, Oct
DeliveryFOB stowed vessel
QualityMin 96° polarization

Contract Months

MonthCodeTiming
MarchHBrazil start
MayKBrazil peak
JulyNBrazil end
OctoberVAsia start

Position Sizing

ExposureContracts
10,000 MT197
25,000 MT492
50,000 MT984

Formula: Contracts = MT ÷ 50.8

ICE White Sugar No.5

Benchmark for refined sugar.

Contract Specs

SpecValue
SymbolQW
Trading Unit50 MT
Price QuoteUSD per MT
Tick Size$0.10/MT ($5.00)
Contract MonthsMar, May, Aug, Oct, Dec
QualityICUMSA 45 max

White Premium

The spread between No.5 and No.11:

White Premium = No.5 ($/MT) - [No.11 (c/lb) × 22.0462]
Example:
No.5 = $550/MT
No.11 = 22.00 c/lb = $485/MT
Premium = $65/MT

Typical Range: $50-120/MT

Spread Trading

Calendar Spreads

Trading price difference between months:

MarketSpreadInterpretation
CarryFar > NearStorage costs
InverseNear > FarTight supply

Common Spreads

SpreadMonthsDriver
H-KMar-MayBrazil harvest
K-NMay-JulMid-season
N-VJul-OctHemisphere switch

Basis

Basis = Physical Price - Futures Price

Components

ComponentExample
Quality+15 pts (VHP premium)
Location+10 pts (Santos)
Timing+5 pts (prompt)
Market+10 pts (tight supply)
Total+40 pts

Convergence

Physical and futures prices converge at expiration:

  • During contract: Physical = Futures ± Basis
  • At expiration: Physical ≈ Futures

Market Participants

TypeRolePosition
ProducersSell sugarShort futures
ConsumersBuy sugarLong futures
TradersIntermediateBoth
SpeculatorsLiquidityBoth

Major Physical Traders

CompanyEst. Volume
Alvean10+ MMT
Louis Dreyfus6+ MMT
Wilmar5+ MMT
ED&F Man4+ MMT
Sucden3+ MMT

Key Takeaways

  1. Two markets — Physical and futures interconnect
  2. No.11 is benchmark — Global raw sugar pricing
  3. Basis matters — Physical trades at ± to futures
  4. Spreads reveal info — Carry vs inverse signals

References