Understanding global production is fundamental to trading. Supply dynamics drive prices.
Production Overview
World Sugar (2024/25)
| Metric | Volume |
|---|
| Total Production | 185 MMT |
| Cane Sugar | 148 MMT (80%) |
| Beet Sugar | 37 MMT (20%) |
| World Trade | 65 MMT |
Top Producers
| Rank | Country | Production | Share |
|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 42 MMT | 23% |
| 2 | India | 34 MMT | 18% |
| 3 | EU-27 | 15.5 MMT | 8% |
| 4 | China | 10.5 MMT | 6% |
| 5 | Thailand | 10 MMT | 5% |
Top Exporters
| Rank | Country | Exports | Share |
|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 32 MMT | 49% |
| 2 | Thailand | 9.5 MMT | 15% |
| 3 | India | 6 MMT | 9% |
| 4 | Australia | 3.5 MMT | 5% |
Harvest Calendar
| Region | Harvest | Peak | Marketing Year |
|---|
| Brazil (CS) | Apr–Nov | Jun–Aug | Apr–Mar |
| India | Oct–Mar | Dec–Feb | Oct–Sep |
| Thailand | Nov–Apr | Jan–Mar | Dec–Nov |
| Australia | Jun–Dec | Aug–Oct | Jul–Jun |
| EU | Sep–Jan | Oct–Nov | Oct–Sep |
Brazil
Brazil produces ~23% of world sugar and ~50% of exports.
Key Stats
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Production | 42 MMT |
| Exports | 32 MMT |
| Domestic Use | 10.5 MMT |
| Cane Crushed | 620 MMT |
Center-South Region
States: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul
| Item | Value |
|---|
| Area | 8.5M hectares |
| Mills | ~250 |
| Season | Apr–Nov |
Sugar-Ethanol Mix
Mills can switch between sugar and ethanol:
| Sugar Price | Mill Strategy |
|---|
| >16 c/lb | Maximize sugar (~52%) |
| <16 c/lb | Maximize ethanol (~58%) |
Price Drivers
- Weather — Drought/frost damage
- BRL/USD — Weaker Real = cheaper exports
- Ethanol demand — Domestic fuel prices
- Port congestion — Affects premiums
India
Second-largest producer, largest consumer. Swings between exporter and importer.
Key Stats
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Production | 34 MMT |
| Consumption | 29 MMT |
| Exports | 6 MMT |
| Mills | ~530 |
Producing States
| State | Share |
|---|
| Uttar Pradesh | 35% |
| Maharashtra | 30% |
| Karnataka | 15% |
Price Drivers
- Monsoon — 80% rain-fed
- Government MSP — Affects planting
- Export policy — Subsidies/bans
- Ethanol diversion — Government program
Thailand
Third-largest exporter, key Asian supplier.
Key Stats
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Production | 10 MMT |
| Exports | 9.5 MMT |
| Domestic | 2.5 MMT |
| Mills | 57 |
Regions
| Region | Share | Risk |
|---|
| Northeast | 55% | Drought |
| Central | 25% | Lower |
| North | 15% | Variable |
Destinations
| Market | Share |
|---|
| Indonesia | 25% |
| China | 15% |
| Regional | 15% |
Australia
Smaller volume but high quality.
Key Stats
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Production | 4.5 MMT |
| Exports | 3.5 MMT |
| Mills | 24 |
QSL markets ~85% of exports.
Export Ports
| Port | Capacity |
|---|
| Townsville | 3 MMT |
| Mackay | 2 MMT |
| Bundaberg | 0.8 MMT |
European Union
Largest beet sugar producer.
Key Stats
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Production | 15.5 MMT |
| Consumption | 16.5 MMT |
| Net Imports | 1 MMT |
Major Countries
| Country | Production |
|---|
| France | 4.5 MMT |
| Germany | 4.0 MMT |
| Poland | 2.5 MMT |
Production Costs
Cost Comparison (USD/MT FOB)
| Origin | Cane/Beet | Process | Total |
|---|
| Brazil | 120 | 40 | 210 |
| Thailand | 180 | 50 | 290 |
| Australia | 220 | 70 | 360 |
| India | 200 | 80 | 370 |
| EU | 350 | 80 | 520 |
Supply Disruptions
Natural
| Event | Region | Impact |
|---|
| Drought | Brazil, Thailand | 10-20% drop |
| Frost | Brazil | 5-15% damage |
| Cyclone | Australia | Mill damage |
| Floods | India | Delays |
Policy
| Event | Example | Impact |
|---|
| Export Ban | India 2022 | 5+ MMT removed |
| Biofuel Mandate | Brazil | Less sugar |
Key Takeaways
- Brazil dominates — 50% of exports
- India swings markets — Policy unpredictable
- Seasonality matters — Know harvest timing
- Brazil sets floor — Lowest cost producer
References